Market View
9 02 2010Industrials:
steel, cooper and aluminum seem to defy destiny trying to persevere outwards up trend continuation. In the Softs complex it’s important to note how cardamom is reverting the tough uptrend hold in the last months. It’s interesting how TSR20 wasn’t as damagaded as crude oil being both so correlated. Cotton is making some noice upwards.
No fundamentals from the USDA because snow in DC, so It’s been pretty much a true market, supply and demand of orders.
US$ index is dancing the same song cardamom, reversal.
it’s incredible how industrials have the ability to regain rythm after they lose with some falling days.
Sugar seems enthusiastic about continuing that strong trend.
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video weekly review
1 02 2010| avg | 3% |
| stdev | 7% |
| n | 73 |
| z | 3.67 |
| max | 28% |
| min | -14% |
| avg win | 7% |
| avg loss | -4% |
| p(win) | 67% |
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Weekly trading sugar
26 01 2010get a long position when the weekly return > 3% and when the market context is closing weekly prices are above the long term trend (50week). If we are below the LT trend, shorting is a better idea but no really much of an edge is present.
I would be 6% to 10% of the time in the market, that’s three or four positions in a year. (…)
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Meet a Scalper
22 01 2010Interview with Paul Rotter – aka "the Eurex Flipper" here. Back on F05 it was already point of discussion the algorithms provided by deep pockets for systematic trading in the order books.
One can use this scalper approach towards options on commodity futures.
I must admit, that back then I had absolutely no idea that there was something like ‘risk-management’.
you are known as a order book-scalper, could you please explaining to our readers what you are doing and what your strategies look like? what is your tactic?
a: it’s some kind of market making where you place buy and sell orders simultaneously, making very short-term trading decisions b/c of certain events in the order book (level2). for example, I usually have lots of orders in different markets at the same time, pretty close to the last traded price. the resulting trades are usually a zero sum game, but I get a pretty good feeling for what is going on and then ultimately can make a decision for a larger trade.
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Health Care, Sugar and Industrial metals
20 01 2010Comments : Leave a Comment »
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shorting corn – results
20 01 2010In the paper world last jan 13 I bought one corn call for march at 350 strike for 6 cents or US$300.
It is being quoted as I write for 7’4 or US$375. That is a 25% increase and a gain in position (taking off expenses) of 11%.
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