I would short GC if I had money

Commodities closest to new highs

Where’s the strike zone?

When pitching/hitting it would be:

 

In trading it would be:

A systematic program of learning that emphasizes pattern recognition, an understanding of market movement across time frames, intermarket relationships, sound execution of trade ideas, and risk management.

Via TraderFeed

The daily agenda

this is the desktop background of my computer at the office.

Just missed a fastball in the middle

Thursday was Thanks Giving day for North American culture, since there were no markets I did not came to my office neither thu nor friday.

 

Wednesday my boss tell me to put a bid on the 1040 strike in the put side of the E mini, with little interest in really getting involved in the position. Market stood around the 12.45, so I started bidding at 11.00, couple of hours price kept in the same range so I moved the order to the 12 flat. Market closed and no filled for us.

On Thursday night I Logged on my netvibes night and glance Brian Shannon’s blog a text saying -40 points in the ESZ09 or -2% .

 

On Friday I checked my office’s email at about 10 am and Paulo asks me if we got filled on that put, since Dubai was around the news, markets were down. I answered that since the bid was to heavy we couldn’t get in that position in the way we wanted.

 

On Monday I see that the put was traded for 25.00 on friday… and it’s 21 at today’s pre open.

 

I think there you should know when the market controls you and you give away your precious freedom. When you let the market  have control over you it means that you pretend to get something else from speculation, possibly it is reputation, glamour, empty ness in other life’s areas.

 

the movement on the SP futures on Thursday should have made get on office at next day to see what could I do.  But I would only have followed the noise trying to get late in the move.

 

I hope this experience tells me I am not a trading junkie using the markets to fulfill other empty spaces.

 

Those 10 points we didn’t get were like the refusal of a glass of whiskey. That was the choice and so shall be.

Instead I enjoyed a nice baseball routine with my dad and other kids taking batting practice.

Seller attitude on the crude

Momentum is telling me a 60% chance of shorting the mkt toward 22 day and options are suggesting me 74 for january (closing of december), today’s close was a reverted 78.

 

That little flag, I think, is bound to be broken now.

 

Feeling like a curve ball coming to my compact swing with runner on scoring position.

 

Let us see how it works until we get between Christmas and between New Year.

Very important Information

I know my boss uses ATR for his stop losses, buy this a very nice explanation why to use it and how.

Bid/Ask Size in crude oil

I just noticed when we are in strong trend day the balance of orders tends to get firmer than usual. And when we get in a range, order’s size balance gets wider:

 

 

 

This is important because the z-value suppose to tell when the market  is getting trendy, but I just noticed it is a lagging indicator. Look in the minute chart (left chart), the chart line between z-value and price plots the difference between bids minus asks orders, meaning if >0 then it the ammount of bids trying to get filled at that moment, if negative then you are seeing how many contracts are offered in the ask side.

Check the long term chart (30 mins, right side) how volume increased when bid-ask size balance narrowed and very much the same in the opposite logic, wider bidask sizes while volume getting lower.

In the mean time z-value only confirmed the trend concluding the dabate.

CL speculative observatory

My strike zone for scalping the crude would be the 67-vwap (yellow line), the supply demand order (bidasksize, in the middle) and the mkt z-value. All of them in two time frames: long term (30 mins) and short term (1minute or the left chart).

MKT brief

New monitor on my desk, a 22” wide screen allowed to get this though: The two’s bond futures mkt were on the rise while the TY was inverse. I’d like to know the correlation between those. Also there you have the nasdaq and SP500 future, nasdaq was a little more beaten than spy. Crude got an opening gap and made some deceiving testing close to the vwap levels but it bounced towards the 79.81s.

 

crude is in the way of a change judging by the z-index, not the case for stocks. Bond mkt also have some z value behaivor but not significant I suspect.

 

If the two were demanded and the TY were sold, stocks flattish and throwing way risk (qqqq) there look some movement to cash?